- Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?16¢
- Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?19¢
- Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?19¢
- Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?25¢
- Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?34¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Recent Houthi attacks, including the August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed six, combined with ongoing threats targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value and prompted selective rerouting. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits fluctuated between roughly 200 and 254 in early-to-mid August amid these pressures, with daily averages near 35–40 vessels. Market-implied odds place the highest probability (34%) on 220+ transits for the week of August 24, reflecting trader consensus on resilient shadow-fleet and non-Western flows offsetting mainstream caution. Key swing factors include insurance repricing, carrier service adjustments, and any fresh incidents that could widen the spread between the closely contested 160–219 buckets.