How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
- Will fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?33¢
- Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?21¢
- Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?24¢
- Will 200 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?18¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels, announced in July 2026 amid renewed regional tensions, remain the dominant driver compressing Bab el-Mandeb transits into the lower outcome bins priced at 31.5% for under 160 ships and 47.5% combined for the 160–199 ranges. Weekly totals stabilized near 266 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels above 350, reflecting sustained rerouting, elevated war-risk premiums, and selective avoidance by commodity carriers, as evidenced by daily crossings hovering in the 30–40 range. Competitive pricing across the middle bins highlights trader focus on marginal shifts from any de-escalation signals versus incremental attacks or compliance adjustments, with the thin 18% tail on 200+ underscoring limited scope for rapid recovery absent concrete easing in Yemen-Saudi frictions before week-end resolution.