How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?47¢
- Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?3¢
- Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?<1¢
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?35¢
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?13¢
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Persistent inflation pressures tied to elevated energy prices and Middle East supply risks have shifted trader focus toward the possibility of modest Federal Reserve tightening in 2026, underpinning the 46.5% market-implied probability for zero hikes and 35% for one 25 basis point increase from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Solid economic growth, stable labor conditions, and the July FOMC's 9-3 hold decision—with three dissents favoring an immediate hike—have tempered expectations for aggressive moves while keeping a single adjustment viable. Upcoming CPI releases and the September meeting remain key catalysts that could alter the path of monetary policy priced into fed funds futures.