- Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?13¢
- Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?15¢
- Will two people dissent the September Fed decision?16¢
- Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?30¢
- Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision?27¢
The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on September 16, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the September Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Traders assign closely matched implied probabilities to three or four-plus dissents at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting amid persistent inflation pressures and the July 29 decision's 9-3 split, where Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike from the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target. July PCE held at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 3.3%, while CPI registered 3.36% and unemployment edged to 4.1%, leaving the labor market stable yet showing mixed payroll signals. Geopolitical energy risks have kept upside inflation surprises in focus, sustaining a hawkish minority view that additional regional bank presidents could join ahead of the meeting. Incoming August data releases on inflation and employment represent the key swing factors that could shift the balance, reflecting skin-in-the-game trader sentiment on the committee's internal divisions rather than any assured policy path.