- Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?3¢3%
- Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?86¢86%
- Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?12¢12%
- Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?1¢1%
- Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Waymo operate in 28-31 cities on December 31 2026?<1¢<1%
- 2.5%<12$44.5k Vol.
- 85.5%12-15$77k Vol.
- 12%16-19$57.3k Vol.
- 1.4%20-23$26.1k Vol.
- 0.2%24-27$20.6k Vol.
- 0.4%28-31$11.6k Vol.
Waymo currently operates fully driverless robotaxi service in 15 U.S. metros, including recent public launches in San Antonio, San Diego, and Tampa in mid-October plus gradual rider access in Denver and Las Vegas. Recent developments center on service-area expansions adding nearly 250 square miles across five existing markets in late October rather than new city entries, alongside fleet growth toward 8,000 vehicles by year-end. Regulatory approvals, safety validations, and phased rollouts create barriers to rapid additional launches before December 31, anchoring trader consensus around the 12-15 range as the realistic near-term ceiling.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.