- Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?97¢
- Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?1¢
- Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?<1¢
- Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?<1¢
- Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?<1¢
- Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Trader consensus at 97% for zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 24–30 reflects USGS and global seismic monitoring data showing no events meeting the threshold in that interval. Recent catalogs confirm the last M6.5+ activity occurred earlier in August, including a 7.7 in Indonesia on the 14th and a 6.7 in Peru on the 20th, with subsequent days producing only smaller events. This aligns with typical worldwide rates of roughly 45–50 M6.5+ quakes annually (about one every eight days on average), where short windows frequently record none due to natural variability in tectonic stress release along plate boundaries. Market-implied odds treat the completed period’s null result as near-certain, consistent with official catalogs. A late revision adding an overlooked or borderline event (for example, a newly analyzed aftershock sequence or unreported oceanic quake) could theoretically shift the count, though such changes are rare once preliminary NEIC reviews conclude.