- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?<1¢
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?68¢
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?24¢
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?6¢
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?4¢
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?<1¢
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
A magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck Peru on August 20, establishing one confirmed M6.5+ event early in the August 17–23 window and positioning exactly one as the market favorite at 67.5% implied probability. USGS data show moderate global seismicity overall, with no additional M6.5+ events recorded through August 21 and only isolated M5+ activity in regions such as Indonesia. This aligns with the long-term average of roughly 120–150 M6.0–6.9 quakes per year worldwide, or about one to two M6.5+ events per week, driven by independent mainshocks along subduction zones like the Ring of Fire rather than predictable clustering. Traders appear to weigh the remaining two days against the low statistical likelihood of further large events absent aftershock sequences or clear tectonic precursors, supporting the 23.5% odds on two while keeping higher counts below 10% combined. Upcoming USGS catalog updates through August 23 will finalize the tally based on precise magnitude and timing thresholds.