- Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?25¢
- Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?11¢
- Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?14¢
- Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?13¢
- Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?11¢
- Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?12¢
- Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?9¢
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?10¢
- Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?7¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Recent low global seismic activity in late August 2026, with only scattered M5.0+ events detected by USGS monitoring, supports the market's elevated probability on lower counts for the August 31–September 6 window. Worldwide M5.5+ frequency typically follows a Poisson distribution with notable week-to-week variability driven by subduction zone dynamics along the Pacific Ring of Fire, occasional aftershock clustering, and regional swarm behavior. Key variables include any escalation in plate boundary stress release, model consensus on aftershock decay rates, and confirmation thresholds from the National Earthquake Information Center catalog. Traders appear to weigh the current quiet period against historical fluctuations, where short-term rates can dip well below long-term averages of roughly 20–30 such events per week.