- Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?5¢
- Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?11¢
- Will there be 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?17¢
- Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?17¢
- Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?14¢
- Will there be 11 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?14¢
- Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?8¢
- Will there be 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?6¢
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?10¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Seismic activity remains within typical variability for the final days of the August 24–30 window, with multiple M5.5–6.0 events recorded across the Pacific Ring of Fire and adjacent regions. Official catalogs show at least several qualifying quakes already logged since August 24, including a 6.0 in the Gulf of Aden on the 28th and scattered M5.5–5.6 events near Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, and Fiji. Worldwide rates for M5.5+ average roughly one to two per day, though short-term counts fluctuate due to aftershock sequences and normal tectonic release along subduction zones. With three days remaining, trader consensus clusters tightly around 8–10 total events because model runs and recent observations show no major swarm or quiet period that would push totals well outside this range. New USGS or EMSC detections in the coming hours could still shift the final tally.