- Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?<1¢
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?3¢
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?5¢
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?13¢
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?12¢
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?14¢
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?16¢
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?12¢
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?35¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Global seismic monitoring by the USGS shows typical background rates of M5.5+ events during the first half of the August 17–23 window, contributing to the dispersed market odds across 9–13+ outcomes. Trader consensus reflects the inherent week-to-week variability driven by tectonic activity along subduction zones and transform boundaries, with no dominant clusters or aftershock sequences yet detected to shift probabilities. Key variables include potential aftershock sequences from prior events, real-time magnitude recalibrations, and the remaining three days' activity, where even a single M6+ event could push totals above 13. Historical weekly averages near 12 events underscore the current uncertainty, with resolution hinging on final USGS catalog counts through August 23.