How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
- Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?<1¢
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?14¢
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?11¢
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?4¢
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?5¢
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?5¢
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?13¢
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?11¢
- Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?59¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Elevated seismic activity in subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire, including multiple magnitude 6+ and 7+ events in early-to-mid August 2026, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during August 10–16. USGS data show several notable events already recorded in the window, such as a 7.4 in Colombia and a 5.5 near El Salvador on August 13, alongside others in Alaska and the Kermadec region. Globally, M5.5+ quakes typically average roughly 10–20 per week, with natural week-to-week variability driven by aftershock sequences and plate-boundary stress release; recent model runs and catalog updates from monitoring agencies have reinforced the higher end of that range. With only one day remaining, new data releases or additional moderate events could still shift the final tally before resolution.