How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?30¢
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?6¢
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?6¢
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2026?2¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Trump’s approval rating in his second term has declined steadily through mid-2026, recently reaching second-term lows of 33-35% in multiple national polls amid public concern over the ongoing U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict, economic pressures including tariffs and living costs, and handling of immigration and foreign policy. Support has eroded notably among independents, younger voters, and some former base demographics such as Gen X and white Americans, widening partisan gaps and producing net approvals as low as -26. With the 2026 midterms approaching, traders monitor how legislative priorities, any escalation or de-escalation in international engagements, and economic indicators may further influence polling averages and set the floor for the year’s lowest reading.