Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 12, 2026?<1¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?<1¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 14, 2026?5¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 15, 2026?3¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 16, 2026?6¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?6¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 18, 2026?4¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 19, 2026?9¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?7¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?7¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 22, 2026?9¢
- Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 23, 2026?7¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Recent deadly Houthi strikes on a commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 11, killing six crew and rescuers, have reinforced trader expectations of continued Red Sea disruptions amid the Iran conflict and Saudi embargo. These attacks elevate war-risk insurance premiums, push carriers toward Cape of Good Hope rerouting that inflates fuel and charter costs, and support higher Brent crude benchmarks given Strait of Hormuz constraints. Market-implied odds reflect sustained Houthi operational capacity through missile and drone deployments, with upcoming catalysts including any FOMC signals on energy inflation pass-through or new maritime advisories that could alter risk premia. Traders price in elevated volatility for shipping equities and commodity futures until clearer de-escalation emerges.