- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 22°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 23°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 24°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 25°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 26°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 27°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 28°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 29°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 30°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 31°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 32°C or higher on August 26?>99¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong scientific consensus from multiple forecast models supports the market's 98% implied probability for a daily high of 32°C or higher in Zhengzhou on August 26, 2026. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office, LUFT TIME, WeatherBug, and PredictWind projects a peak temperature of 32–34°C (roughly 90–94°F) during afternoon hours, driven by typical late-summer subtropical conditions with high solar insolation, dew points near 25°C, and light variable winds. Current observations already show readings climbing through the low 30s°C midday under partly cloudy skies, consistent with ensemble model runs that place the maximum well above the 32°C threshold. Limited afternoon convective activity (20–40% rain chance in some models) may briefly temper readings but is not expected to prevent the daily high from exceeding 32°C. Only a substantial, unforecast increase in cloud cover or a rapid influx of cooler maritime air could realistically prevent this outcome, scenarios not supported by the latest model consensus.