- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 26?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 26?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 26?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 26?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 26?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 40°C or higher on August 26?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate mostly sunny conditions with light easterly winds and minimal precipitation risk for Wuhan on August 26, supporting a daytime maximum near 37°C amid ongoing heatwave conditions driven by a strong subtropical high. Recent official yellow heat warnings highlight potential for local peaks reaching 37°C or slightly higher under clear skies and elevated humidity, consistent with climatological late-summer warmth exceeding the long-term August average of roughly 30°C. Trader consensus favoring 38°C as the leading outcome (45.5% implied probability) reflects minor upward bias from ensemble spread and station measurement variability, while the 37°C share (28.5%) aligns closely with point forecasts; resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded by authorized stations.