- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 9?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 9?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 9?63¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 9?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional services indicate a maximum of 14°C for Wellington on September 9 under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with moderate northwest winds. This aligns with typical early-spring conditions in the region, where September daily highs average near 14–15°C based on long-term climatology. Recent model runs show limited spread, with no significant warming or cooling signals from atmospheric patterns or sea-surface influences. The 62.5% market-implied probability for 14°C reflects trader assessment of this consensus, while the 21.5% on 15°C and 15.5% on 13°C capture residual uncertainty from potential forecast revisions or microclimate variations before the daily maximum is recorded. Updated guidance ahead of the observation window will determine whether probabilities shift.