- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 7?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 7?66¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 7?21¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and numerical models indicate a southerly wind change on September 7 will bring widespread rain and cloud cover to Wellington, limiting daytime warming. Highs are projected near 12–13 °C, with some guidance showing 10–11 °C under heavier precipitation and stronger southeast winds. These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting toward 13 °C (66 % implied probability) and secondary support for 12 °C and 14 °C. Spring climatology places typical September maxima around 13–14 °C, but the incoming low-pressure system and associated marine air mass are expected to suppress temperatures slightly below seasonal norms. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum and determine whether the outcome settles at 12 °C or 13 °C.