- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 6?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 6?60¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 6?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 6?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 6?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current numerical weather models from MetService-aligned sources and international ensembles point to a northwest airflow bringing mild spring air over Wellington on September 6, with daytime highs most likely reaching 14–15 °C amid increasing cloud and scattered showers. Wellington’s exposed coastal location and strong winds often moderate peak temperatures relative to inland areas, keeping values close to the September climatological average of roughly 14 °C. The 15 °C outcome’s 58.5 % market-implied probability reflects trader weighting of ensemble members clustered near that level, while the 31.5 % on 16 °C captures upside uncertainty if daytime heating exceeds model guidance. Lower probabilities on 14 °C and below align with the risk of earlier rain or stronger winds suppressing the maximum, consistent with the latest official guidance showing a 50 % rain chance and gusty northwest conditions. Updated model runs and any late adjustments to the 00 UTC or 12 UTC cycles will be the key near-term drivers of further shifts in these probabilities.