- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 1?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 1?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 1?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 1?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 1?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and recent observations position 13–15°C as the most likely range for Wellington’s maximum temperature on September 1, 2026. Latest guidance from sources such as MetService-aligned models and international ensembles shows daytime highs reaching approximately 12–14°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with moderate northwest winds. These conditions favor modest daytime warming after overnight lows near 6–8°C, consistent with early-spring climatology where September averages hover around 13°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 14°C (52.5%) reflects consensus on limited cloud cover and light winds allowing temperatures to peak in the mid-teens Celsius, while the combined 42% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty from small shifts in wind direction or timing of any patchy showers. Recent model runs have shown little day-to-day volatility, keeping probabilities tightly clustered rather than favoring extremes. Updated forecasts issued in the final 24–48 hours before resolution will be the key driver of any late adjustments in trader positioning.