- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 31?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 31?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 31?56¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 31?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent MetService and international model consensus, including ECMWF and GFS runs, points to a mild late-winter day in Wellington on August 31 with northwesterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and a daytime maximum of 14–16°C. This aligns with historical late-August averages near 13–14°C at Wellington Airport while reflecting current warmer-than-normal conditions. Stronger winds may enhance mixing and slight warming, but no major frontal systems or cloud cover are expected to suppress temperatures. Traders have priced 16°C as the modal outcome at 56.5% implied probability, with 17°C the next most likely at 28.5%, reflecting tight forecast agreement ahead of final model updates on the 30th and 31st.