- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 29?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 29?56¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 29?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 29?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a maximum of 14°C for Wellington on August 29 under northwesterly flow and mostly sunny conditions, consistent with late-winter patterns where northerlies advect milder air ahead of a front. Historical August highs average 12–13°C, making the current outlook mildly above normal yet within typical model spread of ±1–2°C due to wind and cloud variability. Trader emphasis on 15°C reflects uncertainty in local orographic effects and potential model underestimation of daytime warming, while lower probabilities for 16°C+ align with limited intensification potential before resolution. Updated guidance expected within 24–48 hours from MetService will likely anchor final implied probabilities.