- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 28?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 28?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 28?61¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 28?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Northerly winds ahead of a developing trough are the main driver positioning 15°C as the market favorite for Wellington’s August 28 maximum, with 60.5% implied probability. Official MetService guidance and multiple models converge on a 14°C high under mostly cloudy skies, strong north to northwest flow gusting near 100 km/h, and afternoon showers, yet traders assign only 13.5% to that exact outcome. Historical late-winter averages near 12–13°C and the potential for brief sunny breaks or enhanced warm-air advection keep 15–16°C (23.5%) in play. Strong mixing from the winds and uncertainty in exact cloud cover and timing of any showers create the narrow spread around these levels, with lower outcomes below 14°C remaining low-probability tail risks.