- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 25?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 25?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 25?56¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on August 25?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on August 25?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent short-range forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a high of 15–16°C for Wellington on August 25, driven by persistent northwesterly winds advecting warmer Tasman Sea air masses ahead of a weakening front. This unseasonal warmth follows record gusts near 168 km/h on August 23 that elevated temperatures well above the August climatological average high of 13–14°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with minimal precipitation risk and continued moderate northwest flow maintaining mild conditions through the period. Trader consensus, reflected in the 55.5% implied probability for 16°C, aligns with these outputs while assigning lower weight to cooler or warmer outliers, consistent with typical winter variability and the narrow forecast window.