Highest temperature in Wellington on August 19?
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 19?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19?62¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 19?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 19?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or higher on August 19?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a highest temperature near 11°C in Wellington on August 19, 2026, aligning with the market's dominant 62% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, combined with near-average seasonal temperatures projected by NIWA for the Wellington region, support daytime highs typically in the low-to-mid 11°C range under southerly flows and variable cloud cover. Recent patterns of cool, unsettled weather with light rain or drizzle have kept readings suppressed, consistent with climatological baselines around 12°C. Model consensus shows limited warming potential before the date, though minor forecast shifts from evolving pressure systems could adjust the final maximum by 1°C. Traders appear to price in this stability while assigning lower odds to 10°C or 12°C deviations.