- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 9?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 9?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on September 9?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on September 9?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on September 9?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on September 9?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent high-resolution forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 likely peaking between 27–30°C under mostly clear skies with southerly flow and light winds. Afternoon temperatures are projected to reach the upper 20s Celsius before any evening increase in cloud cover or isolated showers develops. These conditions align with the closely matched market-implied odds for 28–30°C, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact peak readings influenced by local urban heat effects and model spread. Official observations from stations including Warsaw Chopin Airport will determine the highest hourly value for market resolution, with traders monitoring the final model updates before resolution.