- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 8?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 8?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on September 8?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on September 8?6¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent meteorological model consensus from sources including GFS indicates Warsaw will reach a daytime high of 27°C on September 8 under moderate southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and surface pressures near 1015 hPa, supporting the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for that outcome. Southerly advection of warmer air combined with limited cloud cover and negligible precipitation favors afternoon peaks in the 25–28°C range, with 28°C holding the next-highest 35% odds. Updated short-range guidance shows no significant cooling or intensification signals that would shift probabilities toward lower or higher thresholds, though minor model spread around boundary-layer mixing could still adjust final observed maxima within the current narrow distribution.