- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 7?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 7?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 7?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 7?34¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and observational data position 20–21°C as the most probable daily maximum for Warsaw on September 7, 2026. High pressure near 1025 hPa, light westerly winds, and partly cloudy conditions are expected to limit daytime heating while preventing strong cooling, producing afternoon peaks in the 19–21°C range across multiple sources including Met Office, Yr.no, and Polish meteorological outlooks. These align closely with early-September climatology for the city, where historical averages hover near 20°C. Recent model consensus shows little shift in the past 24–48 hours, supporting trader emphasis on the narrow 20–21°C band (combined market-implied probability exceeding 80%). Lower probabilities for 22°C+ or 19°C and below reflect the narrow uncertainty range in current guidance, with resolution depending on the official highest reading from Warsaw’s primary weather station.