- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on September 6?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 6?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 6?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 6?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 6?31¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast consensus from models such as GFS points to a daytime high of 18–19 °C in Warsaw on September 6 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers and moderate westerly winds of 6–8 m/s. These conditions, driven by a northwest flow and higher pressure building in, suppress daytime warming relative to September climatology near 21–23 °C. The resulting market-implied odds favor 19 °C as the most probable peak, with 20 °C remaining viable if afternoon clearing strengthens solar heating before evening. Lower outcomes gain traction only if persistent cloud cover or earlier rain holds temperatures to 18 °C or below, while warmer thresholds require unexpected ridging not indicated in latest runs.