- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 4?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 4?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from sources including GFS and ECMWF indicates a highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4 most likely between 21–23°C, driven by persistent westerly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating. Current surface observations show mild conditions near 19–22°C under similar synoptic patterns, with dew points supporting modest humidity and light-to-moderate winds reducing thermal buildup. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C, though ensemble spreads and potential breaks in cloud cover introduce uncertainty that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C depending on the timing of any precipitation or clearer intervals. Updated forecast guidance expected overnight will provide the next key data point for traders.