- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 3?100¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 3?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on September 3?0¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction models from sources including the Polish Institute of Meteorology show stable high pressure, light southwesterly winds, and limited cloud cover over Warsaw on September 3, supporting surface heating to a daily maximum of 23°C. This consensus aligns with station data tracking a gradual rise from morning lows near 16–17°C to afternoon peaks in the low 20s Celsius under typical early-September insolation levels. The market-implied 100% probability on 23°C reflects traders' confidence in these verified conditions over alternatives. A sudden increase in convective cloudiness or a shift to stronger northerly flow could suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current model runs show low likelihood of such changes before resolution.