- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 1?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 1?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 1?40¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 1?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 1?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 1?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and regional analyses, converge on a maximum temperature of 20–22°C in Warsaw on September 1 under a westerly flow with moderate winds (5–6 m/s) and variable cloud cover that limits peak solar heating. Light showers or patchy rain are possible, further moderating daytime highs relative to late-August values near 27°C. Trader sentiment splits closely between 21°C and 22°C because ensemble spreads and timing of any frontal features create genuine uncertainty around the precise peak, with official monitoring and updated model runs expected to refine the outcome before resolution. Historical early-September norms near 21°C provide additional context for the narrow probability distribution.