- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C or higher on August 31?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 31?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 31?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 31?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 31?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts for Warsaw on August 31 show daytime highs clustered around 25–27°C, with models indicating a mix of increasing cloud cover, moderate southwesterly winds, and a 40–50% chance of showers or thunderstorms. This setup creates tight uncertainty around the daily maximum, as scattered convection or thicker cloud decks can suppress peak heating by limiting solar insolation, while brief clearer intervals or delayed precipitation allow temperatures to climb higher. Current conditions on August 30 feature partly cloudy skies and highs near 26–27°C under building instability ahead of a frontal boundary. On the 31st, forecasters highlight dew points in the mid-teens Celsius and relatively light winds (around 2–4 m/s), which favor localized thunderstorm development rather than widespread suppression. Official guidance and ensemble runs differ mainly on the precise timing and coverage of afternoon convection, directly separating the 27°C+ outcome from 25–26°C scenarios. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow scientific margin, with the slight edge to 27°C or higher consistent with recent model consensus favoring the upper end of the range before any rain arrives. Updated runs from agencies such as IMGW or ECMWF on the morning of the 31st will likely resolve the remaining spread by clarifying cloud and precipitation trends.