- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 30?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 30?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 30?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 30?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest forecast model runs from agencies including the Met Office and IMGW indicate a daytime maximum in Warsaw near 26–27°C on August 30, driven by southerly flow advecting warmer air under partly cloudy skies with moderate insolation. Differences between these leading outcomes hinge on timing and extent of cloud cover, which modulates surface heating, and subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing; scattered showers could also suppress peaks by several degrees. With historical August maxima averaging around 25°C and current ensemble spreads remaining narrow, trader consensus reflects the narrow scientific margin between these thresholds as official observations finalize.