- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 26?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 26?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 26?64¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a peak temperature of 23°C in Warsaw on August 26 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds of 5–10 km/h, supporting the dominant market-implied probability. A stable high-pressure system has maintained dry conditions with minimal cloud cover, allowing moderate daytime radiative heating while the cool, stable air mass limits further warming. Hourly observations from the prior day showed a similar maximum near 23–24°C with comparable wind and humidity profiles around 50–60%. Consensus across GFS-derived guidance and official monitoring points to negligible precipitation risk and no significant frontal passages, keeping 22–24°C outcomes as the primary range with low implied odds for outliers.