- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 25?55¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 25?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 25?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 25?3¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from GFS and regional models drives the market's strong tilt toward 22°C (54.5% implied probability) and 23°C (35.5%), with 21°C at 10%. Stable high pressure near 1021 hPa, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds are limiting daytime heating and convective activity over Warsaw on August 25. These conditions align with late-August climatology, where average highs trend near 22–23°C amid declining solar angles. Recent model runs show minimal spread, and no incoming fronts or moisture surges are expected to alter the thermal profile before resolution. Traders are pricing the narrow range as the highest-probability outcome given the low volatility in current synoptic setup.