- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on August 24?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 24?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 24?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 24?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 24?4¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from numerical weather models points to a daily maximum of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on 24 August 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow, increasing cloud cover, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that reduce solar insolation and limit boundary-layer heating. Surface observations through the preceding 24 hours show temperatures peaking near 19 °C under similar synoptic conditions, while climatological August normals near 21–23 °C underscore the cooling influence of this pattern. Model agreement on these thresholds, with only modest spread in convective timing, underpins the market’s concentration on the 18 °C and 19 °C outcomes. Updated guidance from official meteorological services will refine probabilities as the day progresses.