- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 23?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 23?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 23?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on August 23?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 23?55¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 23?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models, including those from the UK Met Office, project a maximum temperature of 22–23°C in Warsaw on August 23, 2026, with some ensemble members favoring 19–20°C under partly cloudy conditions and light westerly flow. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 19°C (57%) and 20°C (27%), reflecting late-August climatology where average highs near 22–23°C and minimal synoptic forcing for extremes. Current surface observations show no significant heat advection or blocking patterns that would push values above 21°C or below 18°C. Resolution will depend on official Polish Institute of Meteorology readings, with final model runs and any last-minute boundary-layer adjustments potentially shifting the narrow distribution before observation.