- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 22?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 22?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or below on August 22?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 22?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 22?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 22?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 22?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 22?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 22?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders see the highest temperature in Warsaw on August 22 clustering tightly around 21–22°C because the latest ensemble forecasts indicate a transitional air mass with limited warm advection and moderate boundary-layer mixing under partly cloudy skies. European model consensus shows daytime maxima in this narrow band, driven by weakening high pressure and light northeasterly flow that prevents strong surface heating. Small variations in cloud timing or low-level moisture could easily shift the peak by one degree, which accounts for the closely matched implied probabilities between those two outcomes. The next major model update cycle will refine these details ahead of resolution.