- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 21?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 21?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 21?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 21?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 21?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on August 21?8¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models highlight variable boundary-layer warming and partial cloud cover as the main drivers behind the near-even split between 26°C and 27°C outcomes for Warsaw on August 21. Surface high pressure is expected to limit daytime mixing while allowing modest advection of warmer air from the south, pushing daily maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms of 22–23°C. Minor disagreements in timing of peak insolation and low-level moisture explain why traders assign comparable implied probabilities to these two bins rather than converging on a single value. Updated model runs and official IMGW station observations tomorrow will provide the decisive data for resolution.