Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 18?
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on August 18?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on August 18?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 18?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 18?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 18?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 18?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C or below on August 18?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office, GFS, and European models indicate a daytime maximum near 19–20°C in Warsaw on August 18, driven by a shift to westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air under increasing cloud cover and possible early showers that limit daytime heating. This positions the market’s leading outcomes at 19°C (42%) and 20°C (32.5%) as reflections of boundary-layer moisture and reduced insolation, while 18°C or 21°C odds align with any underestimation of mixing or delayed frontal passage. Historical August maxima average 23–26°C, making the current setup a modest cool anomaly relative to recent warmer days. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations will refine the exact threshold ahead of resolution.