Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 16?
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 16?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 16?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 16?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C or higher on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 16?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 16?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 16?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or below on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders assign the highest probabilities to a 29–30°C peak in Warsaw on August 16 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS converge on a daytime maximum in that narrow band under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and modest warm-air advection. Recent model runs show limited afternoon convective development that could trim the high by 1°C if showers materialize, while stronger insolation or delayed cloud cover would push readings toward 31°C. This tight distribution reflects the typical late-summer variability in central Poland, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any frontal passage create the observed market spread between the two leading outcomes.