Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 15?
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on August 15?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 15?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 15?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 15?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 15?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 15?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C or higher on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or below on August 15?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts from major models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Warsaw’s August 15 maximum will most likely reach 29–31 °C under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow. Clear skies promote strong daytime radiative heating while minimal cloud cover and modest warm-air advection limit cooling, keeping values near the upper end of the August climatological range. Official guidance from Met Office and BBC sources currently bracket 29–31 °C, with minor spread arising from local boundary-layer timing and any brief afternoon cumulus. Market-implied odds concentrated on 30 °C (53.5 %) and 31 °C (28.5 %) therefore align closely with the narrow forecast envelope, reflecting traders’ assessment of model consensus and limited potential for outlier deviations on this short time scale.