- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on September 1?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on September 1?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on September 1?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on September 1?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on September 1?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C or higher on September 1?4¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and official guidance from Environment Canada indicate a high near 28 °C for Toronto on September 1, with a 40 % chance of showers and partly cloudy skies under southerly flow. This setup favors afternoon peaks in the upper 20s Celsius, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 28–30 °C. Key variables differentiating these outcomes include the exact timing and coverage of any showers, which could suppress insolation and cap the maximum, versus clearer breaks that allow stronger daytime heating. Recent model runs show limited spread, reflecting stable large-scale patterns, though small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture could still nudge the realized high by 1–2 °C before resolution.