- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on August 30?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 30?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 30?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 30?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 30?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 30?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 30?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 30?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on August 30?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model runs and official guidance from Environment Canada highlight persistent cloud cover and a 60% chance of afternoon showers as the dominant factors capping Toronto’s August 30 maximum near 23 °C. Southwesterly flow and high humidity further suppress surface heating by limiting insolation and promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daytime peaks below the late-August climatological average of roughly 25 °C. Updated forecasts released late on August 29 shifted expectations downward from earlier 26–27 °C outlooks, aligning market-implied probabilities tightly around 22–24 °C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between these thresholds against residual uncertainty in shower timing and cloud thickness, which could add or subtract 1–2 °C depending on the exact evolution of the weak frontal feature crossing the region.