- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 9?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 9?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on September 9?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on September 9?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on September 9?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 9?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 9?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 9?13¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources point to a highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9 clustered around 30–32°C, with trader-implied odds reflecting this narrow range amid expected afternoon thunderstorms and southerly flow. Persistent cloud cover and heavy precipitation will reduce surface insolation and evaporative cooling, capping daytime peaks, while any breaks in the overcast or stronger warm advection could push readings toward 32°C. Historical September averages near 27–28°C provide baseline context, yet late-summer residual heat and model spread on exact timing of the frontal passage sustain uncertainty between the leading outcomes. Updated runs and observational data from the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities.