- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 7?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 7?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 7?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 7?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 7?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on September 7?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent rain and thunderstorms forecast across Tokyo on September 7 are the main driver keeping market-implied odds clustered around 26–28°C. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance calls for showers throughout the day with a maximum near 26°C, while other models allow brief breaks that could push readings to 27–28°C under southerly flow. Thick cloud cover and high humidity sharply limit surface heating despite typical early-September insolation levels, and the exact timing of heaviest precipitation will determine whether the daily peak stays suppressed near 26°C or edges higher. Traders appear to weigh these forecast uncertainties heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 29°C or above given the expected moisture and reduced solar input.