- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 6?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 6?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 6?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 6?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 6?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 6?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent rain, extensive cloud cover, and northerly winds are the main drivers keeping trader-implied probabilities tightly clustered around 24–25°C for Tokyo’s September 6 high temperature. Multiple forecast models show overcast skies and widespread precipitation (often 80–100% chance) throughout the day, sharply limiting solar heating and daytime temperature rise. Northerly to northeasterly flow advects cooler maritime air, while high humidity and evaporative cooling from rain further cap maxima. Current conditions on September 5 already feature light-to-moderate rain and temperatures near 22–24°C, setting a cool baseline. Ensemble guidance and official agency runs converge on highs of roughly 23–26°C, with the tightest clustering between 24–25°C—aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes (29.5% and 30%). Lower probabilities for 23°C or 26°C reflect residual model spread in exact rainfall timing and intensity, while extremes below 22°C or above 27°C remain improbable given the entrenched synoptic pattern. New model runs and updated Japan Meteorological Agency guidance expected overnight will likely refine the precise peak before markets close.