- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 5?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 5?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 5?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 5?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 5?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 5?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover associated with a frontal system are the dominant factors capping Tokyo's maximum temperature on September 5, 2026, at levels well below the early-September climatological average of roughly 29°C. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and multiple numerical models indicate a high near 25°C under mostly overcast skies, with rain probabilities of 50–80% and northeasterly flow limiting daytime heating. Recent model runs show minor spread: some guidance peaks at 24–25°C amid steady precipitation, while others allow brief afternoon breaks that could push readings to 26°C. The near-even market weighting between 25°C (32.5%) and 26°C (32.0%) reflects this narrow uncertainty band, with traders assigning lower probability to 27°C or higher because additional clearing or stronger insolation would be required. Lower outcomes (24°C or below) receive modest support only if heavier or more prolonged rain develops. Updated short-range forecasts and hourly observations on the morning of September 5 will be the key data releases likely to shift positioning.