- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 4?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 4?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 4?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 4?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a maximum of 26°C for Tokyo on September 4 amid widespread showers and increased cloud cover following a warmer September 3. Multiple ensemble models converge on 25–27°C highs, with heavy precipitation (70–90% probability) limiting solar heating and promoting evaporative cooling. Key variables include the precise timing of frontal passage, which could allow brief afternoon clearing to push readings toward 28°C, versus sustained overcast and rain favoring 25°C or lower. Historical September baselines near 29°C underscore the anomaly driven by this synoptic shift, contributing to the market’s dispersed probabilities around 26–27°C. Updated model runs and JMA briefings tomorrow morning will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.