- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 31?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 31?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 31?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 31?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 31?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 31?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 31?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate mostly cloudy conditions for Tokyo on August 31 with a maximum near 32°C, while other models project 29–31°C amid easterly flow and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Recent cooling after mid-August peaks above 35°C has shifted trader focus toward these moderate outcomes, with 30°C leading at 36% implied probability. Key variables include cloud thickness reducing solar insolation, boundary-layer moisture, and steering patterns that could allow brief clearing or enhanced mixing. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution between the tightly bunched 29–31°C range.